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Capital Intelligence · Method
18 pillars, 116 indicators, one 0–100 composite. This page publishes the arithmetic, the weights, the coverage rules, and the validation criteria that have not yet been met. Sourced as of 2026-10-03.
Weights sum to 136. Share of composite is the pillar weight over that total. Macro-core and sector sub-indices re-normalize on their own weights: macro-core over 71 across 8 pillars, sector over 54 across 8. Growth Nowcast (GDPNow) and Dollar Confidence Composite are carried in the headline composite on their own basis and belong to neither sub-index. Transmission is the stated reason the pillar is in the index at all — it is the basis published for the pillar, not a derivation of the number in the weight column.
| Pillar | Basis | Weight | Share of composite | Share of sub-index | Published transmission basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury & Sovereign Risk | Macro core | 11 | 8.1% | 15.5% | Sets the risk-free curve that cap rates, agency debt pricing, and every discount rate in the sector are built on. |
| Credit Markets | Macro core | 11 | 8.1% | 15.5% | Prices the marginal dollar of sector debt — refinancing spreads, bridge-to-agency execution, and LP return hurdles. |
| Consumer Stress | Macro core | 9 | 6.6% | 12.7% | Drives families' ability to pay: private-pay move-in velocity, rate-increase tolerance, and home-sale-funded entry fees. |
| Banking & Liquidity | Macro core | 10 | 7.4% | 14.1% | Regional banks are the sector's construction and bridge lenders — their balance sheets set the supply pipeline and workout behavior. |
| Corporate Health | Macro core | 8 | 5.9% | 11.3% | Shapes employment, REIT tenant credit, and the health of the vendors and payors the sector contracts with. |
| Inflation & Policy | Macro core | 8 | 5.9% | 11.3% | Sets the sector's largest cost line — wages — and the rate path that decides when the refinancing window reopens. |
| Global Shocks | Macro core | 6 | 4.4% | 8.5% | Feeds through energy, insurance, and construction input costs — and pushes global capital toward defensive, needs-based real assets. |
| Market Structure | Macro core | 8 | 5.9% | 11.3% | Determines how violently any shock transmits — REIT equity cost of capital, agency MBS spreads, and secondary-market liquidity. |
| Labor & Care Workforce | Sector | 9 | 6.6% | 16.7% | The sector's largest cost line and the binding constraint on census growth: staffing availability decides how much of demographic demand can actually be served. |
| Housing & Wealth Transfer | Sector | 8 | 5.9% | 14.8% | Private-pay move-ins and entrance fees are funded by home sales — a frozen housing market delays decisions regardless of need. |
| Reimbursement & Regulatory | Sector | 7 | 5.1% | 13.0% | Public payors set the revenue ceiling for care-heavy assets; when cost inflation outruns reimbursement escalators, margin compresses independently of rates. |
| Sector Capital Markets | Sector | 5 | 3.7% | 9.3% | Turns 'credit is tight' into 'our credit is tight': the actual availability and pricing of the debt and equity this sector transacts on. |
| Insurance & Liability Cost | Sector | 6 | 4.4% | 11.1% | Property, casualty and professional-liability premiums are now the fastest-rising controllable line in senior care operating budgets — catastrophe-driven reinsurance repricing lands on every facility's expense ratio and, through NOI, on valuation. |
| Construction Inputs & Development Cost | Sector | 6 | 4.4% | 11.1% | Sets the replacement cost that decides whether new supply pencils: high input inflation suppresses starts (a tailwind for existing assets) while raising the capex and renovation cost of the portfolio already owned. |
| Demand & Supply Balance | Sector | 7 | 5.1% | 13.0% | The sector's own fundamentals: absorption against a stalled pipeline is what converts demographic demand into occupancy and rate power, and it is the only pillar that scores NOI growth rather than the cost of capital. |
| Operator & Counterparty Health | Sector | 6 | 4.4% | 11.1% | Systemic operator failure is how 2008 and 2018–19 actually hurt owners: coverage, agency reliance and transition activity decide whether the rent and the debt service actually arrive, independent of rates. |
| Growth Nowcast (GDPNow) | Headline only | 5 | 3.7% | — | The earliest read on whether the economy is still expanding: current-quarter growth drives family income and home-sale velocity behind private-pay move-ins, occupancy expectations lenders underwrite to, and the timing of the rate path — a nowcast deteriorating ahead of the published data is the first warning the demand and capital-markets pillars will follow. |
| Dollar Confidence Composite | Headline only | 6 | 4.4% | — | Senior housing is financed in dollars priced off Treasuries: when markets start demanding a premium for holding U.S. assets, long-end yields rise without the usual dollar support, pushing cap rates and debt costs up regardless of Fed policy — the fiscal/sovereign channel no single rates pillar isolates. |
The generated payload carries a weight and a transmission sentence for each pillar. It does not carry a derivation for the weight itself: there is no published fitting procedure, no optimization target, and no sensitivity analysis behind the specific values in the table above. The weights should therefore be read as the publisher's stated relative importance, not as a calibrated result.
Nothing on this record validates them against realized outcomes either: the validation gate has not passed, and the lead-time, false-alarm, and probability-skill criteria cannot be evaluated because no walk-forward has been executed. Until that changes, treat the composite as directional context, not as an input to a model — and never as a multiplier applied to any figure elsewhere on this site.
Last updated October 3, 2026.
A forward-looking growth pillar built around the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate plus five related inputs. It has its own shorter history basis (archive starts 2011) and does not block the index's validation gate while its history accumulates.
An early-warning pillar that asks: are global markets beginning to demand a higher risk premium for holding dollars or dollar-denominated U.S. assets? It is not a dollar-price tracker. A falling dollar, a rising Treasury yield, or rising gold by itself is not a confidence event — the pillar looks for convergence across independent markets. It scores five channels separately:
Every reading is stored as published (point-in-time vintages), with no revisions after the fact. The composite is a directional early-warning measure with a published validation framework — not a validated or predictive forecast.
Calm
0–25
Watch
25–45
Elevated
45–65
Stress
65–80
Crisis
80–100
Current composite 54.8 (Elevated); macro core 57.6; sector 53.8. Month-end history covers 24 months.
These are the criteria the index has not yet met, published verbatim from the same payload the figures come from.
Attribution required: SeniorCRE Macro Stress Index. Not investment, legal, or accounting advice. Sourced as of 2026-10-03. Directional context for capital decisions, not investment, legal, or accounting advice.